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<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xml:lang="ru"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">mossj</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="ru">Московский хирургический журнал</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Moscow Surgical Journal</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">2072-3180</issn><publisher><publisher-name>ООО «ПРОФИЛЬ – 2С»</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.17238/2072-3180-2026-1-132-139</article-id><article-id custom-type="elpub" pub-id-type="custom">mossj-1073</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>ОНКОЛОГИЯ</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Ранние предикторы развития затяжного плеврального выпота после лобэктомии: проспективное исследование</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Early predictors of prolonged pleural effusion after lobectomy: a prospective study</trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0009-0004-0218-666X</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Шагдалеев</surname><given-names>Р. Ф.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Shagdaleev</surname><given-names>R. F.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Шагдалеев Роман Фатыхович – врач-хирург хирургического отделения торакальной онкологии;  ассистент кафедры физиологии и патофизиологии, Институт медицины, экологии и физической культуры</p><p>432078, Ульяновская область, г. Ульяновск, ул. 12 Сентября, д. 90</p><p>432071, Ульяновская область, г. Ульяновск, ул. Льва Толстого, д. 42</p><p>SCOPUS ID: 1245970</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Shagdaleev Roman Fatykhovich, M.D., Surgeon, Thoracic Oncology Department; Assistant, Department of Physiology and Pathophysiology, Institute of Medicine, Ecology and Physical Culture</p><p>90 12 Sentyabrya Street, Ulyanovsk, 432078</p><p>42 Lev Tolstoy Street, Ulyanovsk, 432071</p><p>SCOPUS ID: 1245970.</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">1shagdaleev@gmail.com</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4731-2952</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Власов</surname><given-names>А. П.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Vlasov</surname><given-names>A. P.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Власов Алексей Петрович – доктор медицинских наук, профессор, заведующий кафедрой факультетской хирургии с курсами топографической анатомии и оперативной хирургии, урологии и детской хирургии</p><p>430005, Республика Мордовия, г. Саранск, ул. Большевистская, 68</p><p>ResearcherID: C-3981-2018, Scopus ID: 55543808600</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Vlasov Aleksey Petrovich, Dr.Sci. (Med.), Professor, Head of the Department of Faculty Surgery with Courses in Topographic Anatomy and Operative Surgery, Urology and Pediatric Surgery</p><p>68 Bolshevistskaya St., Saransk 430005</p><p>ResearcherID: C-3981-2018, Scopus ID: 55543808600</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">vap.61@yandex.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-2"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff-alternatives id="aff-1"><aff xml:lang="ru">Государственное учреждение здравоохранения «Областной клинический онкологический диспансер»; Федеральное государственное бюджетное образовательное учреждение высшего образования «Ульяновский государственный университет»,<country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en">State Healthcare Institution Regional Oncological Dispensary; Federal State Budgetary Educational Institution of Higher Education Ulyanovsk State University<country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><aff-alternatives id="aff-2"><aff xml:lang="ru">Национальный исследовательский мордовский государственный университет им. Н.П. Огарева<country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en">National Research Mordovia State University<country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2026</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>05</day><month>03</month><year>2026</year></pub-date><volume>0</volume><issue>1</issue><fpage>132</fpage><lpage>139</lpage><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright &amp;#x00A9; Шагдалеев Р.Ф., Власов А.П., 2026</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2026</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Шагдалеев Р.Ф., Власов А.П.</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Shagdaleev R.F., Vlasov A.P.</copyright-holder><license license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://www.mossj.ru/jour/article/view/1073">https://www.mossj.ru/jour/article/view/1073</self-uri><abstract><sec><title>Цель</title><p>Цель. Определить ранние клинико-функциональные и плевральные предикторы развития затяжного плеврального выпота (ЗПВ) у пациентов после лобэктомии и оценить их прогностическую значимость.</p></sec><sec><title>Материалы и методы</title><p>Материалы и методы. Проведено проспективное одноцентровое исследование, включившее 168 пациентов, перенесших лобэктомию с системной медиастинальной лимфодиссекцией в ГУЗ «Областной онкологический диспансер» г. Ульяновска в период с 01.06.2024 по 01.11.2025. В анализ включены клинико-демографические данные, показатели функции внешнего дыхания, результаты общего и биохимического анализа крови, а также характеристики плевральной жидкости на 2-е и 4–5-е сутки после операции. ЗПВ определяли при сохранении плеврального дренажа более 5 суток при отсутствии признаков гнойно-воспалительных осложнений. Статистический анализ выполняли с использованием логистической регрессии и ROC-анализа.</p></sec><sec><title>Полученные результаты</title><p>Полученные результаты. Частота развития ЗПВ составила 29,2 % (49/168). По данным статистического анализа с риском ЗПВ ассоциировались больший рост пациента (p=0,012), курение (p=0,002), более высокие значения ПОС и ФЖЕЛ (%), а также повышенный уровень белка, нейтрофилов, лимфоцитов и объёма плеврального отделяемого на 2-е сутки (p&lt;0,001). В многофакторной модели независимыми предикторами ЗПВ стали: абсолютное количество нейтрофилов в плевральной жидкости на 2-е сутки (AOR=1,94), концентрация белка плеврального экссудата (AOR=1,082), факт курения (AOR=2,92), ФЖЕЛ (%) (AOR=1,021), при этом наличие атеросклероза сосудов нижних конечностей ассоциировалось со снижением риска ЗПВ (AOR=0,34). Построенная модель продемонстрировала высокую прогностическую точность (AUC=0,832; 95 % ДИ: 0,756–0,908; чувствительность 70,8 %; специфичность 83,6 %).</p></sec><sec><title>Выводы</title><p>Выводы. Затяжной плевральный выпот после лобэктомии развивался почти у трети пациентов и тесно связан с ранними признаками воспалительно-экссудативного ответа в плевральной полости, а также с курением и функциональными особенностями дыхательной системы. Оценка состава плевральной жидкости и ключевых клинических параметров уже на 2-е сутки после операции позволяет надёжно стратифицировать риск ЗПВ и индивидуализировать послеоперационную тактику дренирования и наблюдения.</p></sec></abstract><trans-abstract xml:lang="en"><sec><title>Introduction</title><p>Introduction. To identify early clinical, functional and pleural predictors of prolonged pleural effusion (PPE) after lobectomy and to assess their prognostic value.</p></sec><sec><title>Materials and methods</title><p>Materials and methods. This prospective single-centre study included 168 patients who underwent lobectomy with systematic mediastinal lymph node dissection at the Ulyanovsk Regional Oncology Dispensary between 1 June 2024 and 1 November 2025. Clinical and demographic data, pulmonary function parameters, complete blood count and biochemical markers, as well as pleural fluid characteristics on postoperative days 2 and 4–5 were analysed. PPE was defined as the need to maintain a pleural drain for more than 5 days in the absence of purulent complications. Logistic regression and ROC analysis were used for statistical assessment.</p></sec><sec><title>Results</title><p>Results. The incidence of PPE was 29,2 % (49/168). In univariate analysis, taller height (p=0,012), smoking (p=0,002), higher peak expiratory flow (PEF) and forced vital capacity (FVC, % predicted), as well as increased pleural protein, neutrophil and lymphocyte counts and higher pleural fluid volume on day 2 (all p&lt;0,001) were associated with PPE. In multivariable logistic regression, independent predictors of PPE were pleural neutrophil count on day 2 (AOR=1,94), pleural protein concentration (AOR=1,082), smoking (AOR=2,92) and FVC (% predicted) (AOR=1,021), whereas peripheral lower limb atherosclerosis was associated with a reduced risk of PPE (AOR=0,34). The resulting model demonstrated high discriminative ability (AUC=0,832; 95 % CI: 0,756–0,908; sensitivity 70,8 %; specificity 83,6 %).</p></sec><sec><title>Conclusion</title><p>Conclusion. Prolonged pleural effusion after lobectomy occurs in nearly one-third of patients and is strongly related to early markers of inflammatory exudative response in the pleural space, smoking status and functional respiratory characteristics. Early assessment of pleural fluid composition and key clinical parameters on postoperative day 2 allows reliable risk stratification for PPE and may guide individualized postoperative drainage management and clinical surveillance.</p></sec></trans-abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="ru"><kwd>лобэктомия</kwd><kwd>затяжной плевральный выпот</kwd><kwd>прогностические факторы</kwd><kwd>логистическая регрессия</kwd></kwd-group><kwd-group xml:lang="en"><kwd>lobectomy</kwd><kwd>prolonged pleural effusion</kwd><kwd>prognostic factors</kwd><kwd>logistic regression</kwd></kwd-group></article-meta></front><back><ref-list><title>References</title><ref id="cit1"><label>1</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Wang B., Yao L., Sheng J., et al. 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